Decline of Water Birds at Al Mansoura Lake and Ammiq Wetland in February 2025: Climate Variation vs. Climate Change

Lebanon experienced an entire month of January without significant rainfall—a concerning trend for a country already struggling with post-war recovery and a prolonged economic crisis. Traditionally, Lebanon’s climate features hot, dry summers and cool, rainy winters, with December to mid-March marking the primary rainy season. This unprecedented dry spell signals the intensifying impacts of climate change in the region.

On average, Lebanon receives between 700 and 1,000 millimeters (28-39 inches) of rainfall annually, with a significant portion — roughly 20 to 30% — falling in January. For example, in January 2024, Lebanon received an average of 191 millimeters (7.5 inches) of rainfall, far exceeding this year’s near-zero precipitation.

Bird Observations and Declining Populations

Chadi Saad, a dedicated birder, SPNL Homat Al Hima activist, and manager of the Hima Hammana Raptor Counting Site, has been monitoring water birds in the Bekaa region. Using eBirding data, he contributes to conservation efforts by documenting bird populations and their ecological shifts. His observations in early 2025 indicate a significant decline in water birds at Al Mansoura Lake and Ammiq Wetland.

According to Wassim Khatib, Manager of the Fish & Wildlife Unit at SPNL, the comparison between bird checklists from 2024 and 2025 demonstrates a severe decline in herons and egrets in these habitats. Since 2020, Al Mansoura Lake has provided a safe refuge for various heron and egret species, including Cattle Egrets, Little Egrets, and Night Herons. These birds regularly moved between the lake and Ammiq Wetland for feeding. However, the prolonged dry period in early 2025 has drastically altered these ecosystems.

Ammiq Wetland, a vital food source, has nearly dried up, forcing many birds to leave the area. The once-abundant herons and egrets struggled to find sustenance, leading to population shifts. Notably, the Squacco Heron has completely disappeared from the region due to habitat degradation and food scarcity.

Bird Checklist Comparisons: February 2025 vs. February 2024

Here’s a comparison of the two bird observation records at Mansura West Bekaa (33.687, 35.81) by Chadi Saad on February 11, 2025 (10:53 AM) and February 7, 2024 (11:52 AM):

Effort & Protocol Comparison

• Feb 11, 2025:

• Duration: 13 minutes

• Distance: 0.51 km

• Feb 7, 2024:

• Duration: 32 minutes (longer observation time)

• Distance: 0.66 km (slightly longer route)

Observation time in 2024 was significantly longer, covering a slightly greater distance.

Species and Individual Counts

• Feb 11, 2025: 4 species, 13 individuals
• Feb 7, 2024: 10 species, 93 individuals

Observation in 2024 recorded more species and a significantly higher number of individual birds.

Species Present in Both Checklists

Three species declined in numbers from 2024 to 2025, while Western Cattle-Egret showed a slight increase.

Species Observed Only in 2024

• Laughing Dove (12)

• Common Kingfisher (1)

• Hooded Crow (11)

• House Sparrow (25)

• Common Chaffinch (14)

• European Greenfinch (3)

These six species were present in 2024 but not recorded in 2025, indicating either seasonal variation or a decline in local abundance.

Overall Analysis

• The 2024 observation had more bird species (10 vs. 4) and significantly more individuals (93 vs. 13).

• The 2025 observation recorded only 4 species, possibly due to seasonal changes, habitat shifts, or a shorter observation time.

• Black-crowned Night Heron, Little Egret, and Eurasian Blackbird populations dropped, while Western Cattle-Egret slightly increased.

• Several common species in 2024 (Laughing Dove, House Sparrow, Hooded Crow, finches) were absent in 2025, which may indicate habitat changes or different migration patterns.

Here’s another comparison between the two bird observation checklists recorded by Chadi Saad at Ammiq Wetland, one on February 11, 2025 (1:12 PM) and another on January 19, 2024 (1:47 PM):

Effort & Protocol Comparison

• The 2024 observation was significantly longer and covered a much larger distance.

• This difference likely influenced the higher species count in 2024.

Species and Individual Counts

• The 2024 observation recorded more than six times the number of individuals and more than twice the number of species.

• The longer observation time and larger survey area in 2024 likely contributed to this.

Species Present in Both Checklists

• Hooded Crow and Common Chaffinch populations were significantly lower in 2025.

• House Sparrow and Eurasian Blackbird were recorded in 2025 but were absent in the 2024 checklist.

• Common Kingfisher was spotted in 2025 but was not recorded in 2024.

• Common Buzzard had a slight decline.

Species Observed Only in 2024

The January 19, 2024, observation recorded 10 additional species that were not seen in 2025:

• Northern Shoveler (7)

• Green-winged Teal (80)

• Eurasian Moorhen (5)

• Eurasian Coot (200) – Largest recorded species in 2024

• Northern Lapwing (1)

• Little Grebe (6)

• Great Egret (3)

• Gray Heron (1)

• Western Marsh Harrier (3)

• Eurasian Kestrel (3)

• Eurasian Skylark (10)

• European Stonechat (3)

• Brambling (40)

• Corn Bunting (15)

• Many water-associated birds (ducks, moorhens, coots) were present in 2024 but not in 2025, possibly indicating seasonal migration patterns or changes in water levels.

• Brambling and Corn Bunting had large numbers in 2024 but were absent in 2025.

Overall Analysis

• Fewer species and fewer individuals were observed in 2025 compared to 2024.

• Many waterfowl species (ducks, coots, grebes) were present in January 2024 but not in February 2025, suggesting seasonal migration.

• The Hooded Crow population dropped significantly (100 in 2024 vs. 21 in 2025).

• Some new species appeared in 2025 (House Sparrow, Eurasian Blackbird, Common Kingfisher), which were absent in 2024.

• The shorter observation time and smaller area covered in 2025 likely contributed to the lower count.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Birds in Lebanon

According to Dr. Ghassan Ramadan-Jaradi, assessing the impact of climate change on birds in Lebanon requires long-term studies and field monitoring for at least five years. He emphasized that what is currently being observed in Bekaa represents climate variations rather than definitive climate change. To make such a determination, a long-term assessment is necessary.

To census birds, the 20-minute point-count method should be employed, where all species recorded during this time frame are documented at different locations and times of the year in the most characteristic habitats of a given area (Blondel, 1975; Blondel et al., 1981). This semi-quantitative method estimates changes in species abundance based on variations in frequency across multiple point counts. On days of peak bird movement, it was sometimes necessary to estimate the number of birds passing through, while at other times, birds were counted individually. Additionally, some species were identified through capture using single-shelf mist nets during several survey periods.

Climate Variation and Ornithological Changes in Lebanon

In 2011, Dr. Jaradi conducted a study to support national research efforts in collecting, analyzing, and synthesizing data on the impact of climate variation on avifauna at both national and international levels. His research examined ornithological changes likely driven by rising mean temperatures through a study of Lebanon’s bird populations from 1994 to 2010. Another key aspect of his work was outlining potential adaptation measures for Lebanon’s birds and providing policymakers with indicators of how climate variation affects certain components of the Lebanese environment.

There is no doubt that climate change is occurring on a global scale. The observed trend has shown an increase in mean temperatures, particularly since 1976. Notably, nighttime minimum temperatures have risen at twice the rate of daytime maximum temperatures, leading to fewer winter nights with freezing temperatures in temperate regions. Climate trends in Lebanon mirror these global patterns (Figure 1).

Within this context, the objective of the study was not to provide an extensive literature review on how Lebanon’s birds may be affected by environmental changes but rather to:

1. Determine the extent to which climate variation is responsible for the establishment of new bird species in Lebanon or the expansion of breeding ranges for existing species.
2. Identify appropriate measures to help affected bird species adapt to climate variation.

Challenges in Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Birds

Dr. Jaradi concluded that birds may be simultaneously affected by climate variation and other types of environmental change. Distinguishing which factor is responsible for shifts in behavior or population dynamics is often complex. In some instances, different environmental impacts may exert opposing effects of equal magnitude, resulting in no apparent net change.

Given these challenges, careful interpretation of findings is crucial. Consequently, rather than analyzing aspects such as productivity, mortality, migration patterns, and breeding timing— which require extensive data and effort— the study focused on shifts in breeding and wintering ranges, which are among the most evident bird responses to global warming. Species from southern desert zones, Africa, or tropical regions are more likely to expand northward in response to warming than those originating from northern latitudes.

Adaptation Strategies for Birds in Lebanon

Dr. Jaradi stressed the importance of adaptation to climate variation. Many threats to avifauna stem from the environmental challenges outlined above. Effective adaptation strategies require the following actions:

• Reducing the conversion of natural habitats into urban, industrial, or agricultural land.
• Decreasing the degradation of coastal ecosystems by addressing excessive population growth.
• Minimizing the use of pesticides and other agrochemicals.
• Regulating grazing to prevent soil compaction and destruction of natural regeneration.
• Controlling illegal hunting.
• Preventing forest fires and addressing their root causes.
• Banning the introduction of invasive alien species.
• Mitigating the negative impact of quarries on natural ecosystems.

Many of these threats contribute to deforestation, which not only results in habitat loss for biodiversity but also leads to watershed degradation. This, in turn, exacerbates issues such as floods, droughts, and soil erosion.